The Velocity Trap: Why Your Scrum Metrics May Be Lying to You
- jimapodaca
- Aug 10
- 5 min read
Velocity is one of the most widely discussed metrics in Agile and Scrum circles. Teams proudly report “We delivered 42 points this sprint!” Leadership hears those numbers and feels reassured that work is getting done, the team is “performing.”
But here’s the uncomfortable truth, in many organizations I’ve worked with, velocity is a vanity metric. It gives the illusion of predictability and progress, but in reality, it’s often misleading and in some cases it can even be harmful.
If you’re making decisions based on flawed velocity data, you’re flying blind. And that’s exactly why so many Scrum teams struggle with missed commitments, inconsistent delivery, and eroded trust with stakeholders.
The Myth of Velocity as a Measure of Productivity
Velocity was never intended to be a measure of productivity or output. It’s simply the sum of story points completed in a sprint.
Here’s the trap:
If your story points are inconsistent, your velocity is inconsistent.
If your story points are meaningless, your velocity is meaningless.
Yet many teams and even executives treat velocity like a KPI for performance, creating unhealthy pressure to “increase velocity” rather than improve value delivery. This drives dangerous anti-patterns - inflated points, gaming estimates, and pushing incomplete work to “done” to keep the numbers looking good.
Why Most Velocity Data Can’t Be Trusted
After auditing dozens of Scrum teams, I’ve found the same root causes over and over:
1. Story points are assigned arbitrarily.
Without a shared, consistent baseline for what each point value represents, points are often guessed or “voted” without grounding in actual effort or complexity. I capture this and other estimating anti-patterns in my article - The Five Anti-patterns of Estimating User Stories.
2. Poorly written user stories.
If your stories lack best practices - i.e.“As a… I need… so that…” formatting, or vague or missing acceptance criteria, or you skip the definition of done, you’re not estimating real work - you’re estimating guesses. Your estimates should be a reflection of the total effort it takes to get your story over the finish - not just code. Give consideration to testing, devops, and deploying to production.
3. Missing relative sizing discipline.
Story points are meant to be relative, comparing new work to previously completed stories of similar effort and point size. If that practice is missing, your point scale will drift over time, making velocity useless for forecasting.
4. Rollovers become the norm.
When stories are poorly sized and underestimated, they bleed into the next sprint. This pattern repeats, velocity fluctuates wildly, and sprint commitments lose credibility. More concerning however, is the impact to team morale. Constantly rolling over stories can be defeating, the light at the end of the tunnel is bleak, and no one likes to be on a losing team.
The Consequences of Misunderstood Velocity
When velocity is misunderstood or misused:
Stakeholders lose trust in delivery timelines.
Teams feel pressured to “hit the number” rather than deliver value.
Retrospectives focus on defending numbers instead of solving real problems.
Long-term forecasting becomes impossible.
This isn’t just bad Scrum, it’s organizational risk.
What Velocity Is Actually For
Velocity is best used for forecasting, not measuring productivity. When calculated correctly and consistently, velocity helps teams:
Predict how much work they can realistically deliver in upcoming sprints.
Plan releases with greater confidence.
Spot delivery risks earlier.
But, and this is the key - velocity is only reliable if story points are applied consistently, user stories meet agreed standards, and estimation sessions follow disciplined practices.
How to Break Free from the Velocity Trap
If you want velocity to be meaningful, you have to fix the foundation:
1. Train your team on proper story point estimation.
Use relative sizing techniques like Planning Poker and ensure everyone understands what a “3” vs. a “5” actually means. Again - give consideration to the total all effort it takes to get your story over the finish - not just code.
Time and time again, I see teams that are practicing Scrum without the slightest bit of training. Without training your teams are going through the motions. Scrum is a change management framework - it has many moving parts, roles and responsibilities, artifacts, and tools. Educating your team will yield the true value of Scrum.
2. Standardize user story quality.
Adopt a mandatory story format, clear acceptance criteria, and a shared definition of done. Poor stories equal poor estimates.
3. Track and discuss estimation accuracy.
In retrospectives, review where your estimates went off track - was it unclear requirements, scope creep, technical surprises, or something else? Asking these questions builds estimation discipline.
Anchor your scale with reference stories, and be sure to evaluate and re-evaluate point values - if you estimated a user story at three points, yet it continues to rollover from one sprint to the next - chances are it was never a three point story in the first place. Understand why the story was undersized and throughly discuss this during your retrospective, adjust and re-baseline if necessary. You are doing retrospectives right?
4. Focus on stability, not growth.
A stable velocity over several sprints is far more valuable than an inflated or erratic one. Stability builds trust and predictability.
In my experience, high-performing Scrum teams deliver with a predictability rate of 90–95% against sprint commitments, maintain a stable velocity with less than 10% variance over multiple sprints, and have cycle times averaging 1–3 days for standard user stories.
By contrast, the struggling teams I often encounter exhibit wild velocity swings of 30–50%, roll over 20–40% of their stories from sprint-to-sprint, and achieve less than 70% of their commitments. This is why velocity, without disciplined estimation and healthy backlog etiquette, is not a badge of honor, it’s a false sense of comfort.
A Reality Check for Leaders
If you’re in a leadership role, beware of pushing for “higher velocity” without understanding the underlying mechanics. That pressure often drives teams into estimation inflation and bad Scrum habits.
Instead, measure success by outcomes and predictability, not just points completed. And more importantly invest in training and coaching to ensure your teams know how to estimate, size, and plan effectively. Many teams I've worked with lack a basic understanding of Scrum principles and best practices. This lack of basics contributes to scrum teams that are simply going through motions.
If you think you're doing scrum because you have a daily stand-up, yet lack best practices and a foundation for the fundamentals - all you're really doing is meeting on a daily basis and calling yourselves "agile" - we do scrum - sound familiar?
A Call to Action – Get Your Scrum Audit
If your team reports velocity every sprint but you’re still missing deadlines, rolling over stories, or struggling with predictability, you may be caught in the Velocity Trap.
The good news? It’s fixable.
I offer a Scrum Program Review where I audit your team’s estimation process, story quality, sprint data, and scrum best practices. The outcome is clear, actionable recommendations that help you turn velocity into a tool for trust, not a vanity metric.
You're only one click away from better scrum - schedule your review today!
About Apodaca Consulting:
At Apodaca Consulting, we help companies focus on what’s most important, and why it matters. As a growth partner to executive teams and founders, we help organizations translate strategy into results with measurable ROI.
We work with teams to break down silos, clarify priorities, and build simple, repeatable operating rhythms that integrate seamlessly into company culture.
Our clients typically see a 50% increase in project throughput, a reduction in cross-team friction by up to 40%, and a significant lift in OKRs and initiative completion rates often within the first 90 days.
From restoring visibility and momentum on stalled projects, to aligning day-to-day execution with strategic goals, we help organizations move faster, collaborate better, and deliver on what matters most. At Apodaca Consulting, our approach isn’t just about partnering with leaders to implement solutions; it’s about reshaping the DNA of organizations.
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